O Antropoceno como aceleração do aquecimento global

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18617/liinc.v18i1.5968

Palavras-chave:

Antropoceno, Colapso ecológico, Ecologia política, Aquecimento global

Resumo

O conceito de Antropoceno refere-se primariamente ao aumento da escala da interferência antrópica no sistema Terra, mas também à aceleração desse aumento. A combinação desses dois fatores – escala e velocidade – molda o sistema Terra de modo mais decisivo do que a interferência de fatores não antrópicos, promovendo um colapso do tempo geológico no tempo histórico. Pomos aqui em evidência duas fases da aceleração desse aquecimento (1970-2015 e 2016-2040), com suas consequências mais imediatas e dramáticas: maior frequência de novos recordes de calor e intensificação das ondas de calor extremo, que têm matado mais e mais pessoas e ameaçam a habitabilidade do planeta em latitudes de grande densidade demográfica já no horizonte dos próximos decênios

Referências

AENGENHEYSTER, M.; FENG, Q.Y.; PLOEG F. van der; DIJKSTRA, H.A. The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance. Earth System Dynamics, 9, 2018, pp. 1085-1095

BARNOSKY, A.; BROWN, J.; DAILY, G.C.; DIRZO, R. et al. Scientific Consensus on Maintaining Humanity's Life Support Systems in the 21st Century: Information for Policy Makers.

CALDEIRA, Ken. The Great Climate Experiment. How far can we push the planet? Scientific American, September 2012.

CALLENDAR, Guy S. The Composition of the Atmosphere through the Ages”. Meteorological Magazine, 74, 1939, pp. 33–39.

CHRISTIDIS, Nikolaos; JONES Gareth S.; STOTT, Peter A. Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 heatwave. Nature Climate Change, 8/XII/2014.

COFFEL, Ethan D.; THOMPSON, Terence R.; HORTON, Radley M., The impacts of rising temperatures on aircraft takeoff performance. Climatic Change, 13/VII/2017.

CONDIFLE, Jamie. India experienced its hottest ever recorded temperature of 123.8F. Gizmodo, 20/V/2016

COUMOU, Dim; ROBINSON, Alexander; RAHMSTORF, Stephan. Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures. Climatic Change, 118, 3-4, June 2013, pp. 771-782.

CRUTZEN Paul J. Geology of mankind. Nature, 415, 6867, 2002.

CRUTZEN Paul J. The Anthropocene, in E. Ehlers, T. Krafft (eds.), Earth System Science in the Anthropocene: Emerging Issues and Problems. Springer, 2006.

CRUTZEN, Paul J.; STOERMER, Eugene F. The Anthropocene. IGBP Newsletter, 41, 2000.

DAHL, Kristina; LICKER, Rachel. Too hot to work. Assessing the Threats Climate Change Poses to Outdoor Workers. Union of Concerned Scientists. Agosto de 2021.

DeCONTO, Robert; POLLARD, David. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise”. Nature, 531, 31/III/2016.

DEY, Sushmi. 31,000 heat-related deaths of 65+ in India in 2018: Report.” The Times of India, 3/XII/2020.

EDITORIAL, Mercury rising. Nature, 22/VI/2017.

FREEDMAN, Andrew. California endures record-setting ‘kiln-like’ heat as fires rage, causing injuries. The Washington Post, 6/IX/2020.

Global Climate Report 2019, NOAA. Disponível em https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913. Acesso 02/02/2022.

GOLDSMITH, Edward; ALLEN, Robert. Blueprint for survival. The Ecologist, special edition, January 1972.

HADDAD, Mohammed. “Mapping the hottest temperatures around the world”. Aljazeera, 1/VII/2021.

HANSEN, James E.; SATO, Makiko. Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change. Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects, 2011.

HANSEN, James et al. Global Temperature in 2020”, 14/I/2021. Disponível em <http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2021/20210114_Temperature2020.pdf>. Acesso 01/03/2022.

HANSEN, James et al., Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2°C Global Warming is Dangerous. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. An interactive open-access journal ot the European Geosciences Union, 16, 22/III/2016.

HANSEN, James et al. Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions Program. Earth Institute. Columbia University,2021. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2022/Temperature2021.13January2022.pdf.

HANSEN, James; SATO, Makiko. Global Warming Acceleration. Earth Institute, Columbia University, 14/XII/2020.

HANSEN, James; SATO, Makiko et al. July Temperature Update: Faustian Payment Comes Due. Disponível em: http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2021.pdf Acesso 04/01/2022.

HANSEN, James; SATO, Makiko; RUEDY, Reto. Global Temperature in 2021. Diponível em http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2022/Temperature2021.13January2022.pdf . Acesso em 01/02/2022.

IGBP – International Geosphere-Biosphere Program 2004. <http://www.igbp.net/about.4.6285fa5a12be4b403968000417.html>.

IPCC AR3 Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report: “sea level is projected to continue to rise for many centuries. Disponível em: <http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/vol4/011.htm>. Acesso, 01/03/2022.

IPCC Special Report 1.5. Summary for Policymakers, 2018.

ISSBERNER, Liz-Rejane; LÉNA, Philippe (eds.), Brazil in the Anthropocene. Conflicts between predatory development and environmental policies. Londres, Routledge, 2017.

JOUZEL, Jean. Face au changement climatique, nous devons faire de la nature notre alliée. Entrevista concedida a Marjorie Cessac. Le Monde, 5/III/2022.

KAHN, Brian. Carbon Dioxide is raising at Record Rates. Climate Central, 10/III/2017.

KAI, Wenjia et al., The 2020 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 2020.

KAPLAN, Sarah. How America’s hottest city will survive climate change. The Washington Post, 8/VII/2020.

KAPLAN, Sarah; TRAN, Andrew Ba. Nearly 1 in 3 Americans experienced a weather disaster this summer. The Washington Post, 4/IX/2021.

KULP, Scott A.; STRAUSS, Benjamin H. New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding”. Nature Communications, 10, 29/X/2019.

LANGE, Catherine de. The Heat and the Death Tool are rising in India. The Guardian, 31/V/2015.

LEAR, Caroline H. et al. Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate. Journal of Geological Society, 178, 2020.

LINDSEY, Rebecca. Climate Change. Global Sea Level. NOAA, 14/VIII/2020.

LINDSEY, Rebecca; DAHLMAN, LuAnn. Climate Change: Global Temperature. NOAA Climate.gov, 15/III/2021.

MACDONALD, Fiona. One of the World’s Wealthiest Oil Exporters Is Becoming Unliveable. Bloomberg, 16/I/2022.

MALLAPUR, Chaitanya. 61% Rise in Heat-Stroke Deaths Over Decade. India Spend, 27/V/2015.

MARQUES, L. Gênese da ideia de Antropoceno. In: Capitalismo e colapso ambiental. Ed. da Unicamp, 3a ed., 2018, cap. 10, item 10.1, pp. 461-480.

MCNEILL, John; ENGELKE, Peter. The Great Acceleration. An environmental history of the Anthropocene since 1945. Harvard Univ. Press, 2014.

MEADOWS, Donella; MEADOWS, Dennis L.; RANDERS, John; BEHRENS III, William W. The limits to growth: a report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Club of Rome and Potomac Associates. Universe Books, 1972.

MET Office. UK summer heatwave made thirty times more likely due to climate change. 6/XII/2018.

MILMAN, Oliver. A third of Americans are already facing above-average warming. The Guardian, 5/II/2022.

MILMAN, Oliver. Nearly quarter of world’s population had record hot year in 2021. The Guardian, 13/I/2022.

MORA, Camilo et al. Global risk of deadly heat”. Nature Climate Change, 19/VI/2017.

NANDI, Jayashree. Parts of Delhi sizzle at 45°C, no quick respite likely: IMD. Hindustan Times, 23/V/2020.

NARAYANAN, Nayantara. India is just half a degree away from a huge spike in heat-related deaths in summers. Quartz India, 14/VI/2017.

NASA. California Heatwave fits a trend. Earth Observatory. 6/IX/2020.

NOAA. North Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Global Climate Report 2019, <https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913>.

OBRINGER, Renee et al. Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate. Earth’s Future, 29/XII/2021.

OMM. State of the Global Climate 2020. 2021

PERKINS S. E.; ALEXANDER L. V., On the measurement of heat waves. American Meteorological Society, 1/VII/2013.

PLANELLES Manuel; FERREYRA Jaime P. La ONU advierte sobre la gran ola de calor en Norteamérica: Es más propia de Oriente Próximo. El País, 29/VI/2021.

RAY, Meenakshi. Of the world’s 15 hottest places, 10 are in India”. Hindustan Times, 27/V/2020.

RAYMOND Colin; MATTHEWS, Tom; HORTON, Radley M., The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance. Science Advances, 6, 19, 8/V/2020.

RIPPLE, W.J.; WOLF, C. et al. World Scientists’s warning to humanity: a second notice. Bioscience, Vol.67(12): 1026-1028, dec. 2017; World Scientists’warning of a climate emergency. Bioscience, Vol. 70(1): 8-12, jan. 2020 e Bioscience, Vol. 71(9): 894-898.

SAMENOW, Jason. Africa may have witnessed its all-time hottest temperature Thursday: 124 degrees in Algeria”. The Washington Post, 6/VII/2018.

SCHÄR, Christoph. Climate extremes: The worst heat waves to come. Nature Climate Change, 6, 2016, pp. 128–129.

SENEVIRATNE, Sonia et al. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 28/I/2016

SENGUPTA, Somini. U.S. Midwest Freezes, Australia Burns: This is the Age of Weather Extremes. The New York Times, 29/I/2019

SHERWOOD, Steven C.; HUBER, Matthew. An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress. PNAS, 107, 21, 25/V/2010, pp. 9552-9555.

SOMERO, George N. et al. Review of the Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Plan. U.S. National Research Council of the National Academies (Division on Earth and Life Studies), 2013.

STEFFEN, W.; GRINEVALD, J.; CRUZEN, P. J.; MCNEILL, J., The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives. Philos. Trans. of the R. Society, 369, 2011, pp. 842-867.

STEFFEN, Will; BROADGATE, Wendy; DEUTSCH, Lisa; GAFFNEY, Owen; LUDWIG, Cornelia, The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration. The Anthropocene Review, 2015, 2(1).

STEFFEN, Will; CRUTZEN, Paul J.; MCNEILL, John, The Anthropocene: Are Humans Now Overwhelming the Great Forces of Nature? Ambio, 36, 8, 2007.

STEFFEN, Will; DEAN, Annika; RICE, Martin; MULLINS, Greg. The Angriest Summer, Climate Council of Australia, 2019.

STEFFEN, Will; SANDERSON, Angelina, TYSON, Peter D. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. The IGBP Book Series. Springer, 2004, p. 131.

TAHERKHANI, Mohsen et al., Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency. Scientific Reports, 16/IV/2020.

TRIPATHI, Bhasker. India Underreports Heatwave Deaths. Here’s why this must change”. India Spend, 15/VI/2020.

VOOSEN, Paul, Seas are rising faster than ever. Science, 370, 20/XI/2020, p. 901.

WARD, Barbara; DUBOS, René. Only One Earth. The care and maintenance of a small planet. Penguin Books, Middlesex, 1972.

WATT, Nick et al., The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come”. The Lancet, 392, December 2018.

WESTON, Phoebe; WATTS, Jonathan. Highest recorded temperature of 48.8C in Europe apparently logged in Sicily. The Guardian, 11/VIII/2021.

WESTON, Phoebe; WATTS, Jonathan. Highest recorded temperature of 48.8C in Europe apparently logged in Sicily. The Guardian, 12/VIII/2021.

WGA; Working Group on Anthropocene, 21/V/2019. <http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/workinggroups/anthropocene/>.

WITZE, Alexandra. Giant cracks push imperilled Antarctic glacier to collapse. Nature, 14/XII/2021.

WITZE, Alexandra. Why extreme rains are gaining strength as the climate warms. Nature, 20/XI/2018.

WMO – World Meteorological Organization. 2019

WONG, Sam. So far 2019 has set 35 records for heat and 2 for cold. New Scientist, 30/I/2019.

XU, Yangyang; RAMANATHAN, Veerabhadran; VICTOR, David. Global Warming will happen faster than we think. Nature, 5/XII/2018.

ZALASIEWICZ, J. The Anthropocene as a potential new unit of the Geological Time Scale, 2015. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_FbbXlgkgE.

ZEE, Bibi van der. More than 400 weather stations beat heat records in 2021. The Guardian, 7/I/2022.

ZHAO, Qi et al. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. The Lancet. Planetary Health. July 2021.

ZITTIS, George et al. Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa. Climate and Atmospheric Science, 23/III/2021.

Downloads

Publicado

04/04/2022

Como citar

Marques, L. (2022). O Antropoceno como aceleração do aquecimento global. Liinc Em Revista, 18(1), e5968. https://doi.org/10.18617/liinc.v18i1.5968

Edição

Seção

Desafios das Ciências sociais no Antropoceno