Crescimento da literatura e dos autores sobre a Lei de Lotka
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18225/ci.inf.v38i3.1235Keywords:
Crescimento exponencial, Lei de Lotka, Produtividade dos autores, Cienciometría, Bibliometría, Informetría.Abstract
Analisa o crescimento da literatura produzida sobre a Lei de Lotka, assim como o crescimento dos autores produtores dessa literatura, de 1922 a 2003. Nesse período o crescimento da literatura segue o modelo exponencial, com taxa média de crescimento de 7,5% ao ano e taxa de duplicação a cada 9,6 anos. Também o número de autores produtores da literatura cresce à proporção de 7,3% ao ano, com período de duplicação a cada 10 anos. A estatística indica bom ajuste ao modelo exponencial, com R2 de 0,985 para a literatura e 0,992 para os autores, ambos a um nível de signifi cância de 0,01.
Palavras-chave: Crescimento exponencial. Lei de Lotka. Produtividade dos autores. Cienciometría. Bibliometría. Informetría.
The growth of literature and authors on Lotka’s Law
Abstract
The growth of literature produced on Lotka’s law from 1922 to 2003, as well as the growth of authors producing that literature, is analyzed. The growth of literature follows an exponential model with an annual average of 7.5% growth and doubling its size every 9.6 years. The number of authors producing this literature grows at a rate of 7.3% per year and duplicating its volume every 10 years. The statistics indicate a good adjustment to the exponential model, with R2 of 0.985 for literature and 0.992 for authors, both at a level of 0.01 significance.
Keywords: Exponential growth. Lotka’s law. Authors’ productivity. Scientometrics. Bibliometrics. Informetrics. Scietometrics.
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